ndrosen

So suppose that Trump and Putin manage to negotiate and end to the Russian-Ukrainian war on some set of terms, and impose this unsatisfactory peace on Ukraine. One obvious problem is that Putin is utterly untrustworthy, and, whatever he says, would be likely to invade what would remain of Ukraine as soon as he saw an advantage in doing so. He might launch another full-scale invasion; he might have his forces fire a few shells, conduct a few drone strikes, or fail to carry out measures which Russia had pledged to undertake.

What then? Would Trump’s America come to Ukraine’s defense, or even resume sanctions against Russia? Does Trump so much as understand that Putin is utterly perfidious? What would be the consequences for Ukraine, and for whatever remains of American honor? Would Trump raise the issue at the negotiating table, and demand that Putin address it, before agreeing to any supposed peace treaty?

I find it hard to be cheerful about the prospects.

Robert Kagan had an article in The Atlantic recently, “Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat,” warning that without adequate American aid, or even with it, Ukraine may be outright conquered by Russia.

Much of it made good sense to me (alas), but I will quote a pair of sentences which did not: “Many people, and not just Trump’s supporters, similarly assumed that the mere election of Trump would be enough to force Putin to agree to a peace deal. Trump’s tough-guy image and deal making prowess supposedly gave him, in the view of one former Defense official, ‘the power and the credibility with Putin to tell him he must make a just, lasting peace.’”

I certainly never assumed anything like that! Cadet Bone Spurs may have a tough-guy image among the ignorant, but I can’t think of any evidence that he has real courage. As to his credibility, someone may have misspelled “credulity.” We’re talking about the man who accepted Putin’s assurances over the assessments of America’s intelligence agencies, so I would be very much surprised if Putin does not see Trump as a weakling and easily bamboozled chump.

If, Lord forbid, Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine, I see some possible good coming of it: Some of the less delusional MAGAts may see this as a blow and a national shame to the United States, and Trump’s support may erode. The real estate crash and national debt crisis which we are likely to see in another year or two may also discredit the would-be caudillo. I fear, though, that this could be a very painful and costly way for the country to learn a lesson.

I have done a bit of reading, trying to understand the significance of Russian advances near Kharkiv, and the military situation as a whole; different reporters and armchair generals have different takes on the matter. Only two points are clear to me, that the news is not very good, and that Ukraine continues to fight. I have just chipped in financially to aid Ukraine, and I invite others to do so.

This does not apply to you if you have business before the Patent Office, if you are a fellow federal employee, or if it would otherwise be improper for me to suggest that you make a donation.

Slava Ukraini, heroiam slava!

If you are represented by a Republican Congressman or Senator, and you support aiding Ukraine, I have a suggestion. Write a letter pointing out that if Ukraine suffers defeat after the Republicans, especially their Putin wing, cut off American assistance, many Americans will be distressed and angry, and “Who Lost Ukraine?” is likely to be a question in politics. Some, at least, of those who might otherwise vote Republican will be distressed over the Republicans having abetted the Russian dictator in a war of aggression, and made the United States look unreliable, with a dysfunctional government. This could hurt GOP electoral prospects.

This argument just might move a few Republicans who fail to show much sympathy to a free nation defending itself, or to see the merits of aiding Ukraine from the perspective of American national interest.

Slava Ukraini, heroiam slava!

Russia’s, and specifically Vladimir Putin’s, war of aggression against Ukraine continues, and there are Trumpublican politicians in the United States who oppose continuing to arm and aid Ukraine, whether out of admiration for autocrats, unwillingness to (as they see it) waste the public’s money, or pandering to a segment of their political base. Donations can be made to aid Ukraine at https://u24.gov.ua , and we can also do our little part by writing to our Congressional representatives, especially if they happen to be Republicans (mine are all Democrats).

You can remind your Congressman or Senator of Ronald Reagan, and tell him that you have not grown weary of making quite minor sacrifices to preserve human liberty and repel aggression. This may accomplish at least something to persuade politicians that serving the interests of Russia’s dictator is not the road to popularity at home.

Ukraine has a crowdfunding site, https://u24.gov.ua, which I used today to make a donation. You can select Drones and Demining, Medical Aid, and Rebuilding Ukraine, and, according to the site, more than $200 million have been contributed by friends of Ukraine.

Slava Ukraini, heroiam slava!

A few days ago, I received confirmation: the check I sent months ago to an account of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense at a bank in Kyiv finally got deposited, and debited from my account. Given all the time it took, I’m not sure that I should appeal to others to do likewise.

If anyone wants to help refugees, Ukrainian and otherwise, organizations like Doctors Without Borders and the International Rescue Committee are involved in that work, and accepting donations. Donations can also be sent to Razom, which means “Together” in Ukrainian. I have mailed them a check; you can also make donations by credit card at their website.

If you have business before the Patent Office, or are a fellow federal employee, or if it would otherwise be improper for me to solicit you to make any donations, this post does not apply to you.

A statement from my broker arrived the other day, and, at least as of April 29, a check which I mailed to a bank in Kyiv, to be deposited to the account of the Ministry of Defense, had not been debited from my account. The mails may be disrupted, or bank clerks in Kyiv may be occupied with other matters. I hope that the payment goes through eventually; meanwhile, it is possible to donate to organizations aiding Ukrainian and other refugees.

Until my Congressman sent me an email about it, I did not know that Arlington was a sister city of Ivano-Frankivsk in Ukraine, but now I know about Arlington showing support. There are links at the bottom of the page to several organizations involved in aiding Ukrainians in Ukraine and in the neighboring countries to which several million of them have fled.