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Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is
Nov. 18th, 2025 09:14 amFor years, I have been warning of the Great Recession of 2026, based on Georgist economic theory and the eighteen year real estate cycle. On Saturday, there was an online membership meeting of the Henry George Institute, and in addition to official business, there was some general discussion. One Georgist (who used to work for Fannie Mae) said that there had been a recent fall in real estate prices in some parts of the country; there seems to be a consensus among Georgists that we can expect another major crash soon.
I have previously moved some of my Federal Thrift Savings Plan funds from stocks into bonds, and yesterday I made a further move. About sixty percent of my money was in the C Fund, common stocks, tracking the S&P 500; I moved one half of that to bonds, and I may move more. The C Fund has returned over 15% this year, but I do not expect it to continue doing so; I expect a stock market crash in the near future, in response to the bursting of a land price bubble.
If you have investments, you may wish to consider a similar reallocation of funds in stocks or real estate into bonds or cash. If you don’t have significant investments, I advise keeping a reserve of money, in case you lose your job or face other difficult circumstances.
If our society and country do not collapse altogether, and no major Georgist reforms are made, I expect in due course to give advance warnings of the Great Recession of 2044-2045.
I have previously moved some of my Federal Thrift Savings Plan funds from stocks into bonds, and yesterday I made a further move. About sixty percent of my money was in the C Fund, common stocks, tracking the S&P 500; I moved one half of that to bonds, and I may move more. The C Fund has returned over 15% this year, but I do not expect it to continue doing so; I expect a stock market crash in the near future, in response to the bursting of a land price bubble.
If you have investments, you may wish to consider a similar reallocation of funds in stocks or real estate into bonds or cash. If you don’t have significant investments, I advise keeping a reserve of money, in case you lose your job or face other difficult circumstances.
If our society and country do not collapse altogether, and no major Georgist reforms are made, I expect in due course to give advance warnings of the Great Recession of 2044-2045.
